A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
